21 Global Economic
Indicators to Watch
Dynamically updated with insights from our analyst team, this dashboard provides an unbiased
snapshot into the health of the US economy, helping you stay better informed.
Last Updated: October 27, 2020
Categories
Financial
Consumer Price Index
CPI came in at 1.73% on a year-over-year basis, increasing since last month and meeting analyst expectations. Economic stress from Covid-19 has had a large impact on prices, but inflation increases have been leveling out.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, October 27, 2020
Employment
Payrolls
The US labor came in below expectations in September, adding 661K jobs. September's improvements brings the U.S. unemployment rate back down to 7.9%.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, October 27, 2020
Manufacturing
Empire State Manufacturing Index
In September, the Empire State Manufacturing index decreased to 10.5, missing expectations. The manufacturing sector has been one of the bright spots of the economic recovery.
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, October 27, 2020
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, October 27, 2020
Consumer
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
In September, revised Consumer Sentiment reached 80.4, beating analyst expectations. Consumers are helping lift economic prospects for the recovery underway.
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, October 27, 2020
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, October 27, 2020
Financial
Real Gross Domestic Product
Q2 GDP was revised at -31.4%, beating consensus expectations. The sharp downturn in growth reflects the damage done by the Covid-19 outbreak.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, October 27, 2020
Employment
Initial Jobless Claims
The latest reading of initial claims came in at 787K, beating expectations. Initial claims are likely to remain elevated and slowly move downward over time.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, October 27, 2020
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, October 27, 2020
Real Estate
New Home Sales
Single-family houses sold missed expectations in September, coming in at 959,000. Housing appears to be recovering quickly from the Covid pandemic, likely receiving a significant boost from low mortgage rates.
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, October 27, 2020
Financial
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
The index declined to -0.070. Recent fears have surrounding the Coronavirus have hurt markets and sent shockwaves throughout the entire economy.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, October 27, 2020
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, October 27, 2020
Consumer
Leading Index for the United States
The index improved to 1.72, gaining from the previous month. These figures represent the month of February, subsequent figures are likely to drop substantially due to the Covid-19 virus outbreak.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, October 27, 2020
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, October 27, 2020
Real Estate
NAHB Housing Market Index
In January, the NAHB Housing Market Index increased to 76. Housing conditions have likely been buoyed by the recent Fed rate decrease and expected neutral Fed decisions in the near future.
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, October 27, 2020
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, October 27, 2020
Employment
Private Payrolls
Private Payrolls rose to 749K, beating analyst expectations. The labor market has been recovering, but still has a long way to go to recover jobs lost to the pandemic. Recent ADP numbers have not accurately captured the true pace of hiring.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, October 27, 2020
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, October 27, 2020
Real Estate
House Price Index
The latest HPI reading came in at 4.04%, beating analyst expectations. The housing market is likely receiving substantial support from historically low mortgage rates.
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, October 27, 2020
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, October 27, 2020
Consumer
Personal Income
In August, income rose to 3.96% year-over-year growth, missing analyst expectations. This figure represents a growth of -2.7% month over month.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, October 27, 2020
Consumer
Personal Spending
In August, consumer spending growth came in at -1.92% YoY, beating expectations. Spending will be closely monitored going forward as the economy recovers from the pandemic.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, October 27, 2020
Business
Retail Sales
Retail sales rose by 1.9% in September, putting the index at 2.77% on a year-over-year basis. Core retail metrics also rose, increasing 1.5% in September. The slowing growth in retail sales could indicate slowing economic recovery.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, October 27, 2020
Employment
Continuing Jobless Claims
Continued claims fell to 8.373M last week. The four week moving average has been steadily decreasing, falling slightly further this week to 10.085M.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, October 27, 2020
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, October 27, 2020
Business
Business Inventories
In August, business inventory growth came in at 0.3%, missing analyst expectations. Over the last five years, inventories have been cyclical but trending upwards.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, October 27, 2020
Financial
Philly Fed Survey
In September, the Philadelphia Fed Survey increased from 17.2 to 32.3, beating analyst expectations. Underlying components have shown promise, especially those indicative of future activity.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, October 27, 2020
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, October 27, 2020
Manufacturing
Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods
In August, orders rose by 0.4%, missing analyst expectations. The manufacturing sector is a critical industry in the broader economy, recovery in this sector is crucial for returning to pre-covid output.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, October 27, 2020
Manufacturing
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircrafts
August showed further growth in the core durable goods metric, rising to $67.7B in production. This is indicative of a month over month growth rate of 1.8%.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, October 27, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, October 27, 2020
Real Estate
Existing Home Sales
In September, existing home sales jumped to 6.54 million, coming in above expectations. The housing market is likely to benefit from historically low mortgage rates.
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, October 27, 2020
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, October 27, 2020