21 Global Economic
Indicators to Watch
Dynamically updated with insights from our analyst team, this dashboard provides an unbiased
snapshot into the health of the US economy, helping you stay better informed.
Last Updated: October 22, 2021
Categories
Financial
Consumer Price Index
CPI came in at 0.4% this month, highlighting a substantial increase in prices. The Fed has argued that these price increases will be transitory, but continued increases has many concerned that rapidly increasing prices could constrain the economic recovery.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, October 25, 2021
Employment
Payrolls
The US labor came in below expectations in September, adding 194K jobs. August's improvements brings the U.S. unemployment rate down to 4.8%.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, October 25, 2021
Manufacturing
Empire State Manufacturing Index
In September, the Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 34.3, beating expectations. The manufacturing sector has been one of the bright spots of the economic recovery.
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, October 25, 2021
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, October 25, 2021
Consumer
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Revised Consumer Sentiment reached 72.8, coming in above analyst expectations. Inflation fears as well as a Covid resurgence has been holding down consumer confidence.
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, October 25, 2021
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, October 25, 2021
Financial
Real Gross Domestic Product
Q2 revised GDP missed expectations, coming in at 6.6%, showing a strong level of continued recovery in the economy. Q2 GDP was initially expected to come in north of 8%, marking a substantial shortfall in output. 6.6% is still a robust growth rate, but such a substantial expectations miss raises eyebrows.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, October 25, 2021
Employment
Initial Jobless Claims
The latest reading of initial claims came in at 293K, beating analyst expectations. Initial claims are still trending downwards, likely indicating that the labor market is firmly in recovery territory.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, October 25, 2021
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, October 25, 2021
Real Estate
New Home Sales
New home sales beat expectations in September, coming in at 740K. While still healthy, the housing market is facing rising prices for homes.
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, October 25, 2021
Financial
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
The index declined to -0.070. Recent fears have surrounding the Coronavirus have hurt markets and sent shockwaves throughout the entire economy.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, October 25, 2021
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, October 25, 2021
Consumer
Leading Index for the United States
The index improved to 1.72, gaining from the previous month. These figures represent the month of February, subsequent figures are likely to drop substantially due to the Covid-19 virus outbreak.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, October 25, 2021
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, October 25, 2021
Real Estate
NAHB Housing Market Index
In July the NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 80. While still indicative of highly favorable conditions for builders, high materials costs are presenting a challenge for the industry.
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, October 25, 2021
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, October 25, 2021
Employment
Private Payrolls
Private Payrolls came in at 568K, beating analyst expectations. The labor market has been recovering, but still has a long way to go to recover jobs lost to the pandemic.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, October 25, 2021
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, October 25, 2021
Real Estate
House Price Index
The latest HPI reading came in at 11.91%, missing analyst expectations. The housing market is is seeing increasing prices, as a housing shortage and high demand are currently pushing up prices.
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, October 25, 2021
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, October 25, 2021
Consumer
Personal Income
In September, personal income rose 0.91% year-over-year growth, matching analyst expectations. This figure represents a growth of 0.2% month over month.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, October 25, 2021
Consumer
Personal Spending
In September, consumer spending growth came in at 11.57% YoY, beating expectations. This represents 0.8% month over month growth. The high YoY growth figure is partially the result of a "base effect," which occurs when the comparative prior year period is abnormally low.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, October 25, 2021
Business
Retail Sales
Retail sales rose by 0.7% in September, beating analyst expectations. Core retail metrics also rose, registering 0.8% growth in the same period.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, October 25, 2021
Employment
Continuing Jobless Claims
Continued claims fell last week, coming in at 2.593M last week. The four week moving average fell, coming in at 2.737M.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, October 25, 2021
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, October 25, 2021
Business
Business Inventories
In July business inventory growth came in at 0.5%, coming in at analyst expectations. Over the last five years, inventories have been cyclical but trending upwards. Possible recovery and inflation on the horizon could reverse this trend.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, October 25, 2021
Financial
Philly Fed Survey
In July, the Philadelphia Fed Survey came in at 21.9, missing analyst expectations. Further progress against the pandemic could provide additional support for the business environment.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, October 25, 2021
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, October 25, 2021
Manufacturing
Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods
In September, orders decreased by 1.8%, beating analyst expectations. Durable goods tend to be somewhat volatile month to month, and the manufacturing sector is still running strong.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, October 25, 2021
Manufacturing
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircrafts
In September, core durable goods came in below expectations, registering a month over month growth of 0.2%. A firming core durable goods metric bodes well for the economy as a whole.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, October 25, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, October 25, 2021
Real Estate
Existing Home Sales
In September, existing home sales came to 5.88 million, meeting expectations. Rising prices have been a challenge for the housing market, but demand has remained strong.
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, October 25, 2021
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, October 25, 2021