21 Global Economic
Indicators to Watch
Dynamically updated with insights from our analyst team, this dashboard provides an unbiased
snapshot into the health of the US economy, helping you stay better informed.
Last Updated: May 30, 2020
Categories
Financial
Consumer Price Index
CPI came in at 1.44% on a year-over-year basis, decreasing slightly since last month and missing analyst expectations. Economic stress from Covid-19 could further depress prices.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, June 02, 2020
Employment
Payrolls
The US labor market shed 20.5M jobs in April, beating expectations. The labor market has taken a dramatic plunge since the outbreak of the Covid-19 coronavirus.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, June 02, 2020
Manufacturing
Empire State Manufacturing Index
In April, the Empire State Manufacturing index decreased to -48.5, missing expectations. Economic shutdowns across the U.S. are taking their toll on the manufacturing sector.
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, June 02, 2020
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, June 02, 2020
Consumer
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
In April, revised Consumer Sentiment reached 72.3, missing analyst expectations. Support could decline further in response the Covid-19 virus.
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, June 02, 2020
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, June 02, 2020
Financial
Real Gross Domestic Product
Preliminary Q1 GDP came in at -5.0%, missing consensus expectations. The sharp downturn in growth reflects the damage done by the Covid-19 outbreak.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, June 02, 2020
Employment
Initial Jobless Claims
The latest reading of initial claims came in at 2.123M, coming in at expectations. The employment market has come under extreme pressure in recent weeks as virus containment efforts have led to the shutdown of many businesses.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, June 02, 2020
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, June 02, 2020
Real Estate
New Home Sales
Single-family houses sold rebounded in April, coming in at 623,000. The housing market will be watched closely, as economic slowdowns in response to the coronavirus may take a toll.
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, June 02, 2020
Financial
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
The index declined to -0.070. Recent fears have surrounding the Coronavirus have hurt markets and sent shockwaves throughout the entire economy.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, June 02, 2020
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, June 02, 2020
Consumer
Leading Index for the United States
The index improved to 1.72, gaining from the previous month. These figures represent the month of February, subsequent figures are likely to drop substantially due to the Covid-19 virus outbreak.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, June 02, 2020
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, June 02, 2020
Real Estate
NAHB Housing Market Index
In January, the NAHB Housing Market Index increased to 76. Housing conditions have likely been buoyed by the recent Fed rate decrease and expected neutral Fed decisions in the near future.
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, June 02, 2020
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, June 02, 2020
Employment
Private Payrolls
Private Payrolls plummeted to -20,236K, beating analyst expectations. The labor market has been reeling from economic shutdowns across the country.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, June 02, 2020
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, June 02, 2020
Real Estate
House Price Index
The latest HPI reading came in at 4.99%, missing analyst expectations. The housing market may begin to show strain as a result of the Covid-19 shutdowns.
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, June 02, 2020
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, June 02, 2020
Consumer
Personal Income
In April, income rose by 10.5% to 13.8% year-over-year growth, beating analyst expectations. This improvement is the result of job losses in the bottom half of the income spectrum.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, June 02, 2020
Consumer
Personal Spending
In April, consumer spending growth came in at -13.6%, down -16.9% from their year ago levels, missing expectations. Spending dropped dramatically as the Covid-19 shutdowns strangled economic activity.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, June 02, 2020
Business
Retail Sales
Retail sales declined by -16.4% in April putting the index at -5.7% on a year-over-year basis. Core retail metrics faired worse as sales declined -17.2% in April, displaying the full negative impact of the coronavirus on the U.S. economy.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, June 02, 2020
Employment
Continuing Jobless Claims
Continued claims fell to 21.052M last week, breaking the trend of increasing continuing claims. The four week moving average has increased slightly to 22.7M.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, June 02, 2020
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, June 02, 2020
Business
Business Inventories
In March, business inventory growth came in at -0.2% missing analyst expectations. Over the last five years, inventories have been cyclical but trending upwards.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, June 02, 2020
Financial
Philly Fed Survey
In April, the Philadelphia Fed Survey increased from -56.6 to -43.1 missing analyst expectations. Underlying index components have fallen more negative in response to economic shutdowns.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, June 02, 2020
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, June 02, 2020
Manufacturing
Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods
In April, orders declined 17.2%, beating analyst expectations. Covid-19 shutdowns have begun to take a large toll on the manufacturing sector.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, June 02, 2020
Manufacturing
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircrafts
Core durable goods orders for the last year had been coming in a $5B range under the $70B ceiling level. This trend broke during April as a result of the Covid-19 shutdowns, coming in at $61.9B.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, June 02, 2020
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, June 02, 2020
Real Estate
Existing Home Sales
In April, existing home sales fell to 4.33 million, meeting expectations. The housing market may be a bit more resilient to the economic shutdowns than other sectors.
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, June 02, 2020
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, June 02, 2020