21 Global Economic
Indicators to Watch
Dynamically updated with insights from our analyst team, this dashboard provides an unbiased
snapshot into the health of the US economy, helping you stay better informed.
Last Updated: August 17, 2019
Categories
Financial
Consumer Price Index
Core CPI sits at 2.21% on a year-over-year basis, the highest reading since December 2018. A reading within the 2% range is in line with the Fed's inflation target. A reading persistently over 2% could warrant Fed intervention.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, August 21, 2019
Employment
Payrolls
The U.S. labor market continues to impress adding 164,000 jobs in July. This exceeded analyst expectations by 18,000.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, August 21, 2019
Manufacturing
Empire State Manufacturing Index
In August, the Empire State Manufacturing index increased from 4.3 to 4.8. While this figure comes in under the consensus expectation of 5.1, many underlying business conditions swung back into the positive, led in particular by new orders.
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, August 21, 2019
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, August 21, 2019
Consumer
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
In June, Consumer Sentiment fell by 1.8 points to 98.2. Currently, the index sits 3.2 points below the 10-year high experienced just under a year ago. Additionally, over the last ten years, consumer sentiment has been displaying a positive trend.
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, August 21, 2019
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, August 21, 2019
Financial
Real Gross Domestic Product
The third estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.1%, 1.1% below the original estimate of 3.2%. Contributing to growth last quarter was mainly consumer spending as inventory accumulation slowed and the trade deficit widened.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, August 21, 2019
Employment
Initial Jobless Claims
The latest reading of initial claims increased by 9,000 to 220,000. Additionally, claims currently sit above their four-week moving average. On a year-over-year basis, claims are up 5,000.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, August 21, 2019
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, August 21, 2019
Real Estate
New Home Sales
Single-family houses sold rose in June by 20,000 placing it at 4.53% on year-over-year basis. Contributing to the increase in sales were lower mortgage rates and stagnant price growth.
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, August 21, 2019
Financial
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
The index reached a multi-year high of -0.50 in December as financial conditions seemed to deteriorate during the market rout.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, August 21, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, August 21, 2019
Consumer
Leading Index for the United States
The index currently sits 81 basis points below the ten-year high experienced in October 2014. This is in line with later stage economic growth and appears moderately healthy.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, August 21, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, August 21, 2019
Real Estate
NAHB Housing Market Index
In August, the NAHB Housing Market Index rose 1 point to 66 from 65, also beating consensus expectations. Housing conditions have likely been buoyed by the recent Fed rate decrease and expected dovish Fed decisions in the near future.
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, August 21, 2019
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, August 21, 2019
Employment
Private Payrolls
Private Payrolls jumped in June as they came in 75,000 higher than last months report. However, the reading was still below what analysts expected.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, August 21, 2019
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, August 21, 2019
Real Estate
House Price Index
The latest HPI reading came in at 6%. Although price growth remains healthy, year-over-year the figure has been declining since the beginning of 2018.
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, August 21, 2019
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, August 21, 2019
Consumer
Personal Income
In May, income rose by 0.5%, exceeding analyst expectations of 0.3% and matching last months reading. On a year-over-year basis, income growth rose at 2.34%.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, August 21, 2019
Consumer
Personal Spending
In May, consumer spending came in at 0.2%, climbing slightly from last months reading and currently sitting at 4.23% on a year-over-year basis.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, August 21, 2019
Business
Retail Sales
Retail sales rose by 0.4% in June putting the index at 3.29% on a year-over-year basis. Retail sales over the last year has been inconsistent as the economy constantly adjusts to new pressures.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, August 21, 2019
Employment
Continuing Jobless Claims
Continued claims further articulate jobless claims, displaying 1.72M workers still receiving unemployment insurance. The indicator has fallen over 5 million in the last 10 years.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, August 21, 2019
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, August 21, 2019
Business
Business Inventories
In June, business inventory growth came in at 0.0% meeting analyst expectations. Over the last five years, inventories have been cyclical but trending upwards.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, August 21, 2019
Financial
Philly Fed Survey
In August, the Philadelphia Fed Survey decreased from 21.8 to 16.8. The August figure came in well over the consensus expectation of 10. Underlying components were mixed, but still is indicative of expanding manufacturing activity overall.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, August 21, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, August 21, 2019
Manufacturing
Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods
In June, orders rose by 4,465 or 1.5%. This marks the first increase in the last three months. Over the last year, orders have been declining.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, August 21, 2019
Manufacturing
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircrafts
Orders for the last year, have been coming in a 5B range under the 70B ceiling level. In the last 27 years, or since the report coverage started, orders have never breached the 70B level.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, August 21, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, August 21, 2019
Real Estate
Existing Home Sales
In June, home sales fell by 0.07M to 5.27M and currently sits at its 3-month moving average. Despite the decline in sales, the prospect of lower interest rates has the potential to boost sales.
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, August 21, 2019
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, August 21, 2019