21 Global Economic
Indicators to Watch
Dynamically updated with insights from our analyst team, this dashboard provides an unbiased
snapshot into the health of the US economy, helping you stay better informed.
Last Updated: June 15, 2019
Categories
Financial
Consumer Price Index
Core CPI sits at 2.07% on a year-over-year basis as it continues to decline from its 2018 high of 2.33%. A reading within the 2% range is in line with the Fed's inflation target.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, June 16, 2019
Employment
Payrolls
The U.S. labor market continues to impress adding 263,000 jobs in April. This exceeded analyst expectations by 50,000 and is the second consecutive gain this year.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, June 16, 2019
Manufacturing
Empire State Manufacturing Index
In May, New York manufacturing exceptions rose 7.7 points as general business conditions picked up. Currently sitting at 17.8 points, the index is at a year-to-date high.
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, June 16, 2019
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, June 16, 2019
Consumer
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
In April, Consumer Sentiment fell by 1.2 points to 97.2. Currently, the index sits 4.2 points below the 10-year high experienced just under a year ago. Additionally, over the last ten years, consumer sentiment has been displaying a positive trend.
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, June 16, 2019
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, June 16, 2019
Financial
Real Gross Domestic Product
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 3.1%, slightly below the original estimate of 3.2%. Contributing to growth last quarter was consumer spending, fixed investment, and trade, though the first two were to a lesser degree than last quarter.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, June 16, 2019
Employment
Initial Jobless Claims
The latest reading of initial claims came in unchanged at 218,000. Additionally, claims currently sit slightly above their four-week moving average. On a year-over-year basis, claims are down 6,000.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, June 16, 2019
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, June 16, 2019
Real Estate
New Home Sales
Single-family houses sold has been steadily on the rise from the low of 560K experienced last October. On a year-over-year basis, new homes sales are up 7%.
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, June 16, 2019
Financial
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
The index reached a multi-year high of -0.50 in December as financial conditions seemed to deteriorate during the market rout.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, June 16, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, June 16, 2019
Consumer
Leading Index for the United States
The index currently sits 63 basis points below the ten-year high experienced in October 2014. This is in line with later stage economic growth and appears moderately healthy.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, June 16, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, June 16, 2019
Real Estate
NAHB Housing Market Index
After last months mild increase, the index rose 3 points as solid demand drove builder activity. Currently, the index remains optimistic sitting 66-points above the 50-point threshold and above its three-month moving average.
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, June 16, 2019
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, June 16, 2019
Employment
Private Payrolls
May’s payroll report surprised analysts as it came in 157K below forecasts. This is the first sign of a significant slowdown in the labor market and the lowest reading since 2010.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, June 16, 2019
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, June 16, 2019
Real Estate
House Price Index
The latest HPI reading came in at 6%. Although price growth remains healthy, year-over-year the figure has been declining since the beginning of 2018.
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, June 16, 2019
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, June 16, 2019
Consumer
Personal Income
In April, income rose by 0.5%, exceeding analyst expectations of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, income growth rose for the first time since December.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, June 16, 2019
Consumer
Personal Spending
In April, consumer spending came in at 0% pushing the year-over-year reading down to 4.26%. The weakness was led by a fall in durable good and service spending.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, June 16, 2019
Business
Retail Sales
Retail sales rose by 1.6% in March putting the index at 3.68% on a year-over-year basis. Although Retail sales have been trending downward since July 2018, this year's numbers are showing positive momentum.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, June 16, 2019
Employment
Continuing Jobless Claims
Continued claims further articulate jobless claims, displaying 1.68M workers still receiving unemployment insurance. The indicator has fallen over 5 million in the last 10 years.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, June 16, 2019
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, June 16, 2019
Business
Business Inventories
In March, business inventory growth came in flat at 0% meeting analyst expectations. This is the third flat reading in one year and comes on the back of falling wholesaler and retailer inventory.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, June 16, 2019
Financial
Philly Fed Survey
In May, general business conditions pushed the index 8.1 points higher beating consensus and falling in line with its 12-month average. Over the last two years, the index has been displaying a declining trend.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, June 16, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, June 16, 2019
Manufacturing
Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods
In April, orders fell by 5,367 or 2.1%. This is slightly above what analysts expected and marks the second decrease in the last three months.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, June 16, 2019
Manufacturing
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircrafts
Orders for the last year, have been coming in a 5B range under the 70B ceiling level. In the last 27 years, or since the report coverage started, orders have never breached the 70B level.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, June 16, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, June 16, 2019
Real Estate
Existing Home Sales
In April, sales fell slightly to 5.19M and currently sit 1M under its 3-month moving average. Despite the recent fall in mortgage rates, the housing market continues to wrestle with high demand and low affordability.
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, June 16, 2019
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, June 16, 2019