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21 Global Economic
Indicators to Watch

Dynamically updated with insights from our analyst team, this dashboard provides an unbiased snapshot into the health of the US economy, helping you stay better informed.

Last Updated: September 21, 2019

Categories

Financial

Consumer Price Index

CPI came in at 2.39% on a year-over-year basis, beating last month's figure. A reading within the 2% range is in line with the Fed's inflation target. A reading persistently over 2% could warrant Fed intervention.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, September 21, 2019

Employment

Payrolls

The US labor market added 130,000 jobs in August, missing expectations by 28,000. So far in 2109, employment increases are averaging 158,000 a month, compared to 223,000 a month in 2018.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, September 21, 2019

Manufacturing

Empire State Manufacturing Index

In August, the Empire State Manufacturing index increased from 4.3 to 4.8. While this figure comes in under the consensus expectation of 5.1, many underlying business conditions swung back into the positive, led in particular by new orders.

Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, September 21, 2019

Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, September 21, 2019

Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, September 21, 2019

Consumer

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

In August, Consumer Sentiment fell to 89.8, missing analyst expectations of 92.1. Market volatility and persistent trade war fears are driving the decreasing optimism.

University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, September 21, 2019

University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, September 21, 2019

University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, September 21, 2019

Financial

Real Gross Domestic Product

Real Q2 GDP came in at 2.0%, meeting consensus expectations. Driving GDP growth is largely consumer spending and slowing inventory growth.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, September 21, 2019

Employment

Initial Jobless Claims

The latest reading of initial claims increased slightly to 208,000, still beating analyst expectations. The employment market continues to exhibit strength.

U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, September 21, 2019

U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, September 21, 2019

U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, September 21, 2019

Real Estate

New Home Sales

Single-family houses sold fell in July, coming in at 635,000. This number continues as part of a YoY trend of sales improvement in the housing market, but increasing inventory has lowered the new home median sale price.

U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, September 21, 2019

Financial

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

The index decreased slightly to -1.312. Equity markets have improved as a result of the improved outlook.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, September 21, 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, September 21, 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, September 21, 2019

Consumer

Leading Index for the United States

The index currently sits 1.07, a slight improvement of 6 basis points over the previous month. This figure still sits well below the YTD average of 1.19.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, September 21, 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, September 21, 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, September 21, 2019

Real Estate

NAHB Housing Market Index

In August, the NAHB Housing Market Index rose 1 point to 66 from 65, also beating consensus expectations. Housing conditions have likely been buoyed by the recent Fed rate decrease and expected dovish Fed decisions in the near future.

National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, September 21, 2019

National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, September 21, 2019

National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, September 21, 2019

Employment

Private Payrolls

Private Payrolls improved to 195K, significantly beating analyst expectations. US employment continues to be robust.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, September 21, 2019

Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, September 21, 2019

Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, September 21, 2019

Real Estate

House Price Index

The latest HPI reading came in at 4.8%. The strongest growing region year-over-year was the mountain division, coming in at 5.7%.

U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, September 21, 2019

U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, September 21, 2019

U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, September 21, 2019

Consumer

Personal Income

In July, income rose by 0.1%, slightly missing analyst expectations of 0.3%. This is the weakest monthly income increase since September 2018.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, September 21, 2019

Consumer

Personal Spending

In July, consumer spending growth came in at 0.4%, up 0.2% from May, indicating healthy spending in the United States.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, September 21, 2019

Business

Retail Sales

Retail sales rose by 0.2% in July putting the index at 3.58% on a year-over-year basis. Retail sales over the last year has been inconsistent as the economy constantly adjusts to new pressures.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, September 21, 2019

Employment

Continuing Jobless Claims

Continued claims fell to 1.661M last week. This is a slight reduction since last week, and is the fourth consecutive week of beating the 4 week moving average.

U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, September 21, 2019

U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, September 21, 2019

U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, September 21, 2019

Business

Business Inventories

In July, business inventory growth came in at 0.4% just missing analyst expectations. Over the last five years, inventories have been cyclical but trending upwards.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, September 21, 2019

Financial

Philly Fed Survey

In August, the Philadelphia Fed Survey decreased from 21.8 to 16.8. The August figure came in well over the consensus expectation of 10. Underlying components were mixed, but still is indicative of expanding manufacturing activity overall.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, September 21, 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, September 21, 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, September 21, 2019

Manufacturing

Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods

In July, orders rose by $5B or 2%. This marks the second increase in a row. A firming manufacturing market bodes well for US economic health.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, September 21, 2019

Manufacturing

Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircrafts

Orders for the last year, have been coming in a $5B range under the $70B ceiling level. This trend continued in July, coming in at $69.6B.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, September 21, 2019

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, September 21, 2019

Real Estate

Existing Home Sales

In August, existing home sales improved to 5.49 million. The housing market is exhibiting strength in spite of macroeconomic headwinds.

National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, September 21, 2019

National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, September 21, 2019

National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, September 21, 2019