21 Global Economic
Indicators to Watch
Dynamically updated with insights from our analyst team, this dashboard provides an unbiased
snapshot into the health of the US economy, helping you stay better informed.
Last Updated: January 23, 2021
Categories
Financial
Consumer Price Index
CPI came in at 1.61% on a year-over-year basis, decreasing since last month but meating analyst expectations. Economic stress from Covid-19 has had a large impact on prices, but inflation increases have been leveling out.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, January 27, 2021
Employment
Payrolls
The US labor came in below expectations in November, adding 245K jobs. November's improvements brings the U.S. unemployment rate back down to 6.7%.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, January 27, 2021
Manufacturing
Empire State Manufacturing Index
In December, the Empire State Manufacturing index decreased to 3.5, missing expectations. The manufacturing sector has been one of the bright spots of the economic recovery, but recent reimposition of lockdowns is having a negative effect on production.
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, January 27, 2021
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, January 27, 2021
Consumer
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
In November, revised Consumer Sentiment reached 80.7, coming in near analyst expectations. Consumers are helping lift economic prospects for the recovery underway.
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, January 27, 2021
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, January 27, 2021
Financial
Real Gross Domestic Product
Q3 GDP reviesed upward to a record breaking level of 33.4%, beating consensus expectations. The sharp recovery in growth reflects the reopening of most of the economy after the pandemic.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, January 27, 2021
Employment
Initial Jobless Claims
The latest reading of initial claims came in at 900K, beating expectations. Initial claims are likely to remain elevated and slowly move downward over time, but recent trends have concerned analysts that the recovery may be halting.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, January 27, 2021
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, January 27, 2021
Real Estate
New Home Sales
New home sales missed expectations in October, coming in at 841,000. Housing appears to be recovering quickly from the Covid pandemic, likely receiving a significant boost from low mortgage rates.
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, January 27, 2021
Financial
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
The index declined to -0.070. Recent fears have surrounding the Coronavirus have hurt markets and sent shockwaves throughout the entire economy.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, January 27, 2021
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, January 27, 2021
Consumer
Leading Index for the United States
The index improved to 1.72, gaining from the previous month. These figures represent the month of February, subsequent figures are likely to drop substantially due to the Covid-19 virus outbreak.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, January 27, 2021
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, January 27, 2021
Real Estate
NAHB Housing Market Index
In November, the NAHB Housing Market Index decreased to 86. Housing has seen a tremendous boost from historically low mortgage rates.
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, January 27, 2021
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, January 27, 2021
Employment
Private Payrolls
Private Payrolls fell to -123K, missing analyst expectations. The labor market has been recovering, but still has a long way to go to recover jobs lost to the pandemic. Recent ADP numbers have not accurately captured the true pace of hiring.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, January 27, 2021
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, January 27, 2021
Real Estate
House Price Index
The latest HPI reading came in at 4.69%, beating analyst expectations. The housing market is likely receiving substantial support from historically low mortgage rates.
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, January 27, 2021
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, January 27, 2021
Consumer
Personal Income
In November, income declined to 3.14% year-over-year growth, missing analyst expectations. This figure represents a growth of -1.1% month over month.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, January 27, 2021
Consumer
Personal Spending
In November, consumer spending growth came in at -1.26% YoY, missing expectations. Spending will be closely monitored going forward as the economy recovers from the pandemic.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, January 27, 2021
Business
Retail Sales
Retail sales fell by -0.7% in December, putting the index at 3.68% on a year-over-year basis. Core retail metrics also fell, decreasing -1.4% in December. The decreased growth in retail sales could indicate slowing economic recovery.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, January 27, 2021
Employment
Continuing Jobless Claims
Continued claims fell to 5.054M last week. The four week moving average has been steadily decreasing, falling slightly further this week to 5.126M.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, January 27, 2021
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, January 27, 2021
Business
Business Inventories
In November, business inventory growth came in at 0.5%, meeting analyst expectations. Over the last five years, inventories have been cyclical but trending upwards.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, January 27, 2021
Financial
Philly Fed Survey
In December, the Philadelphia Fed Survey rose from 11.1 to 26.5, beating analyst expectations. Further progress against the pandemic could provide additional support for the business environment.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, January 27, 2021
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, January 27, 2021
Manufacturing
Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods
In December, orders rose by 0.9%, beating analyst expectations. The manufacturing sector is a critical industry in the broader economy, recovery in this sector is crucial for returning to pre-covid output.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, January 27, 2021
Manufacturing
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircrafts
December showed further growth in the core durable goods metric, rising to $71B in production. This is indicative of a month over month growth rate of 0.4%.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, January 27, 2021
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, January 27, 2021
Real Estate
Existing Home Sales
In December, existing home sales fell to 6.76 million, beating expectations. The housing market is likely to benefit from historically low mortgage rates.
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, January 27, 2021
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, January 27, 2021