21 Global Economic
Indicators to Watch
Dynamically updated with insights from our analyst team, this dashboard provides an unbiased
snapshot into the health of the US economy, helping you stay better informed.
Last Updated: December 7, 2019
Categories
Financial
Consumer Price Index
CPI came in at 2.32% on a year-over-year basis, decreasing slightly since last month. A reading within the 2% range is in line with the Fed's inflation target. A reading persistently over 2% could warrant Fed intervention.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, December 07, 2019
Employment
Payrolls
The US labor market added 128,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations by a wide margin. The labor market remains a strong component of the U.S. economy.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, December 07, 2019
Manufacturing
Empire State Manufacturing Index
In October, the Empire State Manufacturing index decreased from 4.0 to 2.9. This figure comes in considerably below analyst expectations.
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, December 07, 2019
Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBNY/GACDISA-Empire-State-Manufacturing-Index-Current-General-Business-Conditions-Diffusion-Index-Seasonally-Adjusted, December 07, 2019
Consumer
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
In October, Consumer Sentiment reached 95.5, missing analyst expectations of 96.0. Market volatility and persistent trade war fears are the likely cause for any decreasing optimism.
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, December 07, 2019
University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, December 07, 2019
Financial
Real Gross Domestic Product
Real Q3 GDP came in revised at 2.1%, beating consensus expectations. Driving GDP growth is largely consumer spending and slowing inventory growth.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, December 07, 2019
Employment
Initial Jobless Claims
The latest reading of initial claims decreased to 203,000, beating expectations. The employment market continues to be a bright spot in the US economy.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, December 07, 2019
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, December 07, 2019
Real Estate
New Home Sales
Single-family houses sold rose in October, coming in at 733,000. YoY, new home sales are up 31.6%.
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F, December 07, 2019
Financial
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
The index decreased to -1.380. Recent geopolitical tensions have shown improvement, but markets appear to be holding their breath for clarity on geopolitical developments.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, December 07, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI, December 07, 2019
Consumer
Leading Index for the United States
The index declined to 1.27, losing 21 basis points from the previous month. Recent uncertainties about trade have jarred the market.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, December 07, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index for the United States [USSLIND], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSLIND, December 07, 2019
Real Estate
NAHB Housing Market Index
In November, the NAHB Housing Market Index declined one point to 70. Housing conditions have likely been buoyed by the recent Fed rate decrease and expected dovish Fed decisions in the near future.
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, December 07, 2019
National Association of Home Builders, NAHB / Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index [NAHB], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/NAHB/NWFHMI-NAHB-Wells-Fargo-National-Housing-Market-Index, December 07, 2019
Employment
Private Payrolls
Private Payrolls fell to 66K, missing analyst expectations. The labor market remains strong overall.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, December 07, 2019
Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment [NPPTTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NPPTTL, December 07, 2019
Real Estate
House Price Index
The latest HPI reading came in at 5.1%, beating analyst expectations. The housing market continues to be a bright spot in the U.S. economy.
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, December 07, 2019
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States [USSTHPI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI, December 07, 2019
Consumer
Personal Income
In October, income rose by 0.0%, missing analyst expectations. Real wage and salary growth tapered off from their September levels.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, December 07, 2019
Consumer
Personal Spending
In October, consumer spending growth came in at 0.1%, declining slightly from September. Spending will be in focus as the holiday season ramps up.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE, December 07, 2019
Business
Retail Sales
Retail sales improved by 0.3% in October putting the index at 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. Retail sales over the last year has been inconsistent as the economy constantly adjusts to new pressures.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services, Total [MRTSSM44X72USS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44X72USS, December 07, 2019
Employment
Continuing Jobless Claims
Continued claims decreased slightly to 1.693M last week. The labor market continues to be healthy.
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, December 07, 2019
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) [CCSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, December 07, 2019
Business
Business Inventories
In September, business inventory growth came in at 0.0% beating analyst expectations. Over the last five years, inventories have been cyclical but trending upwards.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Business Inventories [TOTBUSMPCIMSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBUSMPCIMSA, December 07, 2019
Financial
Philly Fed Survey
In November, the Philadelphia Fed Survey increased from 5.6 to 10.4, beating expectations. Underlying components were mixed, but still is indicative of expanding manufacturing activity overall.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, December 07, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philly Fed Survey [FRBP], retrieved from Quandl Inc; https://www.quandl.com/data/FRBP/GAC-Philly-Fed-Seasonally-Adjusted-Diffusion-Indexes-Current-Activity-Index, December 07, 2019
Manufacturing
Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods
In October, orders improved, beating analyst expectations. Overall, manufacturing remains subdued. The cause for the decline is likely the trade war between the U.S. and China. Manufacturing has been an area of concern for economists.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, December 07, 2019
Manufacturing
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircrafts
Orders for the last year, have been coming in a $5B range under the $70B ceiling level. This trend continued in October, coming in at $69.3B.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, December 07, 2019
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturers New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, December 07, 2019
Real Estate
Existing Home Sales
In October, existing home sales rose to 5.46 million, slightly missing expectations. The housing market remains strong in spite of macroeconomic headwinds.
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, December 07, 2019
National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales [EXHOSLUSM495S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S, December 07, 2019